In the NFL, contrasting styles make fights. And while the players throwing the proverbial punches decide the outcome, it’s often the scheme behind them that shapes the game at hand.
On Sunday, Super Bowl LIX will play out between two adversaries who met at this same stage two years ago. That night, the Kansas City Chiefs won, 38–35, over the Philadelphia Eagles, giving Patrick Mahomes his second title.
Since then, the Chiefs have won another championship and are now going for the unprecedented: a three-peat in the Super Bowl era. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is back after a disastrous 2023 campaign followed by a 14–3 season and three wins in the NFC playoffs.
While it was tempting to dig up the Super Bowl LVII film, it wouldn’t have provided an accurate representation of the current teams. Philadelphia has two new coordinators and an all-world running back in Saquon Barkley. Kansas City has new receivers and far more defensive experience.
In that vein, let’s look at four plays from Championship Sunday, two from each team, that could color what we see in the Caesars Superdome.
The Eagles throw outside, and A.J. Brown is a problem
If you look at almost any passing chart from Jalen Hurts this season, you’ll notice a few things. First, the Eagles don’t throw many passes (they threw fewer passes than any team in football this year). Second, Hurts throws almost exclusively to the outside.
This won’t escape the Chiefs and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Spagnuolo moves All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie around, using him in the slot, boundary and as a blitzer. In this matchup, expect to see him outside with Chamarri Conner handling the slot snaps.
The main reason McDuffie will be outside? To deal with Brown and DeVonta Smith. Kansas City plays more man coverage than most teams, as Spagnuolo has confidence in McDuffie and third-year man Jaylen Watson. That’ll be a matchup to watch on Sunday.
As you can see below, the Washington Commanders don’t have such personnel. And in the NFC title game, they were routinely burned. Here, Philadelphia is leading, 14–6, in the second quarter, facing second-and-13 from its own 26-yard line.
The Eagles came out in a condensed formation with Brown (No. 11) and tight end Dallas Goedert (No. 88) to the right-hand side. Washington matched in nickel, showing a single-high safety but rotating into an inverted Cover 2.
When Hurts cut the ball loose, there was a huge space between the underneath, flat defender and the safety playing over the top. Brown ran a simple out route and with the safety sitting high, Brown cut the angle sharp and gave Hurts a huge window to throw into.
Washington constantly gave up fairly easy throws toward the boundary as Marshon Lattimore got torched and nobody else provided much of a challenge. The result was Philadelphia scoring 55 points while Brown led the team with six catches, 96 yards and a touchdown on eight targets.
If the Chiefs are going to have more success, they’ll need to be more active in recognizing route combinations and driving down to close open zones. Kansas City will also be in more man coverage than most teams, attempting to force Hurts into tougher attempts.
Xavier Worthy’s speed has to be accounted for at all times
Early in the season, the Chiefs had a tough time connecting with Xavier Worthy. Through the first nine games, Worthy was targeted 43 times for only 21 catches and 246 yards (5.7 yards per target).
However, that’s all changed. Instead of using Worthy as a gadget guy with a go ball in his arsenal, coach Andy Reid started deploying him on a variety of routes. The results are evident. Over the past nine games (Week 18 excluded), including the playoffs, Worthy has 49 receptions on 68 targets for 522 yards (7.6 yards per target).
In short, Worthy has become a real weapon and one Philadelphia defensive coordinator Vic Fangio must have a detailed plan for. The Eagles will mix their man and zone looks, while also playing a good bit of match coverage. Against Worthy, eye discipline and route recognition will be critical.
In the AFC championship, Worthy posted his first 100-yard game (85 receiving, 16 rushing). And with the game tied at 29–29 in the final minutes of regulation, the Chiefs dialed his number and got a big return.
Facing second-and-7 from the Buffalo 33-yard line with 4:35 remaining, the Chiefs lined up in a 2-by-2 set with Worthy in the left slot against the Bills’ best corner, Taron Johnson. Buffalo is in man coverage. On the snap, tight end Travis Kelce (No. 87) ran a mesh concept with Worthy and narrowly avoided contacting Johnson while picking him. That’s all the help Worthy needed, who crossed linebacker Matt Milano’s (No. 58) face as Mahomes started to throw.
Once Mahomes sees Worthy, it’s over. It’s an easy catch with space galore ahead of the 2024 first-round pick out of Texas, who turned upfield and gained 23 yards to put Kansas City into clear field goal range. While Kansas City’s drive was halted, the Chiefs did retrieve three points and won the game, 32–29.
The lesson here? Buffalo knows Kansas City like a divisional rival and had an All-Pro corner on Worthy. Yet, Reid was able to take advantage of the scheme and create an explosive play.
If the Eagles decide to climb into man coverage with rookie corners Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell, they have to be very aware of all the possible outcomes from a pre-snap basis.
Saquon Barkley and the run game present problems for Kansas City
This might come as a huge surprise, but Barkley is probably going to be a large part of the Eagles’ offensive game plan in Super Bowl LIX.
After rushing for 2,005 yards during the regular season, Barkley has ripped off another 442 yards in the postseason, including a trio of 100-yard games. Against the Commanders, Barkley went for a 60-yard touchdown on his first carry before finishing the day with 118 yards on 7.9 yards per carry.
Facing the Chiefs, the sledding could be a bit more challenging. Kansas City finished the season ranking tied for fourth in yards allowed per carry (4.1) and eighth in rushing yards against per game (101.8).
However, Kansas City will almost always play nickel against 11-personnel (RB, TE, 3 WR), something Philadelphia could try to exploit. On this play, the Eagles are leading, 20–12, in the second quarter while facing a second-and-8 from their own 40-yard line.
It’s a simple call. Barkley jab-stepped left and then ran the counter back to the right with guard Tyler Steen (No. 56) and left tackle Jordan Mailata (No. 68) pulling around to lead the way. Washington, which only had three on the right side of the box (from the offense’s perspective) was at a huge numbers disadvantage.
Immediately, the Commanders are in deep trouble. Philadelphia blocked down with three of its offensive linemen while Steen and Mailata pulled in front of Barkley. Steen got the key block, kicking out linebacker Frankie Luvu (No. 4) while Mailata got through the hole to peel off linebacker Bobby Wagner (No. 54).
It’s an easy 10 yards for Barkley, who wasn’t touched until he got to the second level of the defense. With Kansas City, it’ll be imperative for Philadelphia to continue finding lanes like this, facing a defense that tries to muck up the line of scrimmage rather than penetrate while allowing its linebackers and safeties to make the tackle.
For the Eagles, it’s going to be Barkley again, and again, and again … unless someone shows they can curtail him to any degree.
Nobody is more willing to spin the dial than Spagnuolo
There are plenty of defensive coordinators who like to blitz. Brian Flores might be chief among them. Vance Joseph is up there as well. But nobody brings more exotic looks, and has better timing with them, than Spagnuolo.
This season, Kansas City ranked fourth in blitz rate at 31.6% and created pressure on 26.1% of snaps, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. The Chiefs also checked in at sixth in hurry rate (6.0%) and second in quarterback knockdown percentage (12.8%).
Yet, while most teams who are that aggressive also get torched with big plays, that hasn’t been the case for the Chiefs. In fact, Kansas City is 10th-best in yards allowed per completion at 10.6.
Why? Because the Chiefs have two excellent cover corners in McDuffie and Watson, and the unit is full of excellent tacklers.
Take third-and-10 with 2:17 remaining in the fourth quarter of the AFC title game for example. Kansas City was clinging to a 32–29 lead. The Bills were at their own 42-yard line, threatening to tie the game with a few more first downs.
Instead of playing passively and hoping All-Pro quarterback Josh Allen would make a mistake, the Chiefs brought the house. Pre-snap, you can see there are no deep safeties. Kansas City didn’t hide its intent. It’s a Cover Zero, seven-man blitz. Allen had to get rid of the ball immediately.
To his credit, Allen read the blitz and reacted accordingly. He threw quickly on a receiver screen to Amari Cooper (No. 18) who had right tackle Spencer Brown (No. 79) and slot receiver Khalil Shakir (No. 10) in front of him to block McDuffie (No. 22) and Conner (No. 27).
And yet, note defensive end George Karlaftis (No. 56). After lunging to knock down the pass, Karlaftis stayed in the play and ran toward Cooper, who was about to break into the clear down the right sideline. Instead of a go-ahead, 58-yard touchdown, the play went for five yards because Karlaftis got Cooper’s ankle.
It’s the kind of tackling, and effort, that has defined the Chiefs’ defense all year. Those two traits are also things Spagnuolo will rely on against the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX.
