With every passing day of college hoops action, we begin to get a clearer sense of how the teams in the NCAA Tournament are going to shake out.
In what should be another chaotic NCAA Tournament, many teams are chasing National Championship favorites Auburn and Duke. While the two teams fit the mold of a typical title winner, there are plenty of other teams that have the analytical profile to take down those two in what wouldn’t be all that surprising.
Using the advanced metric site KenPom, we have a fairly strong ability to predict the pool of potential NCAA Tournament winners. As we have done each week, we will update the top teams in the country that fit specific criteria that follow the trajectory of a title-winning team.
Here’s what you need to know.
With that in mind, I like to make three groups of teams: a group that fits the mold of being top 20 on both offense and defense, a group that is slightly below that, top 40 on both sides of the ball, and a team that is top 20 on one side, but outside the top 50 on the other.
Again, this is a moving target and is meant to be a snapshot of where teams are at with an eye on where these teams can be going.
Here’s the three groups.
2025 NCAA Tournament Contenders
Team
Record
KenPom Rank
Projected Seed
KenPom adjO
KenPom adjD
Title Odds
Auburn
23-2
1
1
1
14
+330
Duke
23-3
2
1
2
4
+450
Houston
21-4
3
2
10
3
+900
Florida
22-3
4
1
4
9
+1000
Iowa State
20-5
8
3
17
8
+2000
Maryland
20-6
14
6
16
20
+5000
This group has held steady for much of the season and while there will be a ton of fanfare around Auburn and Duke, Houston and Florida appear to be just as well-balanced as the two trendy teams.
This week I'll focus on the Cougars, who have been knocking on the door of title contention for the last several years. While there has been some turnover along the roster, Kelvin Sampson’s team is as good as ever relaitv eto the national landscape. The group is fresh off a second-half rally to beat Arizona on the road and hasn’t lost a game by more than five points this season.
The Cougars are buoyed by elite floor spacing, ranking top 10 in three-point percentage and offensive rebounding rate, making for a dangerous offense that sometimes falls short on self-creation in the half-court.
Of course, the Cougs bruising defense is its best, top 10 in effective field goal percentage allowed and 11th in turning opponents over.
Could this be the year for Houston? It may not be its best group, but the top of the country is littered with teams that have flaws, as small as they may be.
For Auburn, who blitzed Alabama on the road last week, the team is vulnerable on the defensive glass, holding down the team's overall defensive efficiency, as seen above. The Tigers are 185th in the country in defensive rebounding rate. Of course, the team has the best offense in the country, carving up elite defenses all season long around the versatile play of big man Johni Broome.
As for Duke, the team still goes through dry spells on offense, over-reliant on the self-creation of the elite Cooper Flagg. Further, the team has seemingly improved throughout the season, but does some of that have to do with a watered-down ACC?
I'm nitpicking, which is what happens when two top teams emerge for much of this season. Every team has issues to a certain extent, but if we get to the Final Four and neither Auburn or Duke are in it, there are capable teams that would have dethroned them along the way.
Lastly, Maryland remains inside this threshold after we mentioned the team as one that is at a good buy point in the Futures market. Following two wins over the last week, the team has seen its title odds drop from +7500 to +5000 and I still think this is a buy on the Terps, who have a pathway to a top-four overall seed given its manageable schedule down the stretch and continued strong play
2025 NCAA Tournament Fringe Contenders
Team
Record
KenPom Rank
Projected Seed
KenPom adjO
KenPom adjD
Title Odds
Tennessee
21-5
5
2
30
1
+1700
Alabama
21-4
6
1
3
38
+950
Texas Tech
20-5
7
3
9
32
+3500
Purdue
19-7
10
2
8
39
+3500
Arizona
18-8
12
4
23
10
+4000
Texas A&M
20-5
13
2
40
6
+3000
Missouri
19-6
15
5
11
40
+6500
Michigan State
20-5
17
4
27
13
+5000
Illinois
17-9
20
6
14
28
+7500
Saint Mary’s
23-4
21
7
38
11
+10000
Michigan
20-5
22
4
21
21
+4000
Clemson
21-5
23
7
20
27
+7500
Ole Miss
19-7
24
5
35
17
+13000
Louisville
20-6
25
7
22
29
+10000
Marquette
19-6
27
5
33
19
+7500
Ohio State
15-11
28
9
24
33
+13000
The top table is fairly priced out from a Futures perspective, so if you are hunting for value down the board in the middle of February, it's best to try and find a team that can continue to play its way up the KenPom rankings like this group above.
Two teams I have differing opinions on appear on this list in Michigan and Clemson.
There is plenty of intrigue around Dusty May and Michigan as the first-year head coach two NCAA Tournament’s removed from taking Florida Atlantic to the Final Four has built a formidable contender quickly in Ann Arbor, but I’m not sold.
Yes, the Wolverines can become a 20-20 with a string of good performances – the team is 21st on both sides of the ball in KenPom’s respective adjusted efficiency marks – I’m not sold on this group avoiding a slip-up in tournament play.
The Wolverines run Danny Wolf at point guard essentially, the seven-foot Yale transfer, who makes for a devastating two-man game with FAU import center Vladislav Goldin. However, the Wolverines' potent offense has been held back by the 330th ranked turnover rate in the country. The team plays fast and has shot-making all over, but this team is too sloppy with the ball to prevail six straight times in March.
Despite a torrid stretch in Big Ten play that features a 12-2 record, its last seven wins have come by four points or fewer. This team is due for some harsh regression in close games.
Instead, let’s look at a team like Clemson as a potential buy team moving forward.
While the ACC may be boasting its metrics, this is a team just a year removed from an Elite Eight run and an upset of Arizona, among others, en route to the best result of the Brad Brownell era. With a host of key contributors back in the fold, Clemson has built itself into a similar type of contender, but one that is trading at double the price of Michigan.
The Tigers are a sound shot-making roster, 14th in three-point percentage on a national average rate, but capable around the rim with returning big man Ian Schieffelin and transfer big Viktor Lakhin. The team wins both inside and out and forces teams into isolation sets on defense, posting the longest average length of possession in the country.
In a tournament setting, the team’s prodding pace coupled with its elite shot making can lead to another deep tourney run.
2025 NCAA Tournament Non-Contenders
Team
Record
KenPom Rank
Projected Seed
KenPom adjO
KenPom adjD
Title Odds
St. John’s
22-4
18
4
79
2
+3500
Kentucky
17-8
19
3
5
76
+3500
Baylor
16-10
29
8
12
64
+10000
BYU
17-8
33
11
15
75
+15000
UConn
17-8
36
8
13
98
+6500
San Diego State
17-6
42
11
127
7
+50000
West Virginia
15-10
46
10
105
18
+50000
Utah State
22-4
49
9
18
117
+30000
Villanova
15-11
55
N/A
19
145
+50000
UC-Irvine
22-4
67
11
209
12
+100000
George Mason
21-5
70
12
192
16
+50000
This group has been sniffed out by most of the market with its numbers all continuing to drift in the wrong direction.
The common theme amongst this group is that its elite on one side of the floor and incredibly shaky on the other.
While many are being written off already, St. John’s remains a trendy name ahead of the NCAA Tournament despite last week’s notes mentioning concern about the team ahead of its road loss to Villanova last Tuesday.
Meanwhile, two-time defending National Champion UConn has been the epitome of why this group is non-trustworthy come NCAA Tournament time with its play over the last week.
After taking down Creighton on the road behind a stellar 38-point effort from freshman Liam McNeeley, the team lost to a sub-.500 group in Seton Hall on the road in overtime.
The Huskies' defense has been a leaky faucet all season, and the group will likely point to its shortcomings on that side of the floor when it’s bounced from the NCAA Tournament.
These teams all are lopsided and over-leveraged on its elite play on one side of the floor, like UConn’s offense or St. John’s defense. Sure, it can work in a one-game setting, but it’s not a replicable formula for a long NCAA Tournament run.
The best teams are the ones built to win in different settings against different kinds of opponents, and it’s why these teams can be figured out and why they are non-starters when building out my NCAA Tournament portfolio.
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