There is one week left in the regular season, and the college basketball landscape continues to take shape.
For some teams, like Tennessee and Alabama, each team is gunning for a No. 1 seed and a projected easier path through the NCAA Tournament, while the likes of Auburn and Duke are looking to fortify their standing as the betting favorite come March Madness with accolades coming into focus.
As I’ve laid out weekly since the start of the new year, I’m looking forward to the NCAA Tournament by creating filters for a majority of the contenders with an eye on finding teams that follow a similar profile as historical title-winning teams.
Here is the baseline for the three tables you are going to read through below.
The betting market has moved throughout the season to reflect a lot of what you are going to see below, with the title contenders showing their dominance throughout the season and at the top of the odds when looking at the NCAA Tournament Futures list.
However, it’s the glut of teams in the middle that are nearing title-contending thresholds that could be primed for deep March Madness runs and worthy of a bet at longer odds. As always, I close this week’s notebook with a look at teams that I will be itching to fade come the bracket reveal with its uneven play.
While these numbers are always fluid, I’m using Monday as a snapshot to assess where we stand at the start of the last week of the regular season.
2025 March Madness PreviewNational Championship Contenders
Team
Record
KenPom Rank
Bracket Matrix Projected Seed
KenPom adjO Rank
KenPom adjD Rank
Title Odds
Duke
26-3
1
1
2
2
+350
Auburn
27-2
2
1
1
10
+320
Houston
25-4
3
1
8
3
+850
Florida
25-4
4
1
4
7
+950
Arizona
19-10
13
4
18
18
+4000
This is a static group that I have written about ad nauseam over the past several weeks. To me, the top four teams in this group are of no shock to anyone; these are the top four teams in the country and should be treated as such.
However, as we continue to build data up to the NCAA Tournament, Duke is a cut above Auburn heading into the NCAA Tournament for me.
Yes, the Tigers have an explosive offense and a vaunted frontcourt that propel its defense, but I see more avenues to the Blue Devils handling the rigors of the NCAA Tournament.
Now, the status of Tyrese Proctor is going to be impactful, but it seems he’ll be back with plenty of time before the start of the ‘Big Dance,’ but it’s Duke’s defense that has me thinking this team needs to be the favorite.
The Blue Devils' defense around the versatile Flagg and big man Khaman Maluach makes me bullish that the team can keep down any opposing offense. The group ranks third in two-point field goal percentage allowed while also containing the three-point line at an elite rate. Teams are shooting 30% on three-pointers on about a national three-point rate.
I do believe there are some concerns about Duke’s late-game offense and the state of the ACC with the likes of North Carolina down this year. The team doesn’t have a traditional point guard and has lost some games late to the likes of Kentucky, Kansas, and Clemson with poor execution, but given the team’s overwhelming consistency, it’s too tough of an out. I'm looking for consistency in the NCAA Tournament, and I believe Duke is built to weather storms on all fronts.
The Blue Devils are fifth nationally in effective field goal percentage while taking more than 45% of their shots from beyond the and second on defense.
Meanwhile, Auburn’s offense bolters a ton of upside, but it's defense has some warts, including an opponent free throw rate outside the top 300 and a defensive rebounding rate that is bottom three in SEC play. The team has depth and experience, but I fear it won’t be as routine as SEC competition has been for the team and that the group’s defense can be its fatal flaw.
I expect these two to be the top two seeds come Selection Sunday, but I view them quite differently as I gear up for the tourney.
Team
Record
KenPom Rank
Bracket Matrix Projected Seed
KenPom adjO Rank
KenPom adjD Rank
Natty Odds
Tennessee
24-5
5
2
27
1
+1300
Alabama
23-6
6
1
3
37
+1300
Texas Tech
22-7
7
4
9
29
+3000
Gonzaga
23-8
8
9
7
36
+6500
Michigan State
24-5
9
2
32
5
+2500
Wisconsin
22-7
10
2
11
31
+5000
Iowa State
22-7
11
3
21
9
+2000
Maryland
22-7
14
5
28
12
+5000
Clemson
24-5
17
5
17
24
+6500
Illinois
19-11
19
8
14
34
+8000
Saint Mary’s
27-4
20
6
39
11
+10000
Marquette
22-7
23
5
30
20
+10000
Louisville
23-6
24
6
24
25
+10000
Ole Miss
20-9
26
7
33
23
+10000
Michigan
22-7
29
4
40
22
+10000
Oregon
21-8
33
6
35
40
+15000
Michigan State can seemingly do no wrong, poised to win the Big Ten regular season title and be on the No. 2 seed line in the NCAA Tournament, but I'm not rushing to get involved with Sparty come March.
Tom Izzo’s group has plenty of depth and a promising freshman in Jase Richardson, but I can’t look past the team’s three-point shooting splits when assessing its title-winning equity.
Michigan State is 347th in the country in three-point percentage on a bottom 30 rate but has offset that dismal mark with the fourth lowest three-point percentage allowed in the country. Opponents are shooting 28% from beyond the arc this season against the Spartans, and that’s even lower in Big Ten play as teams are shooting just 26%. I don't see this holding up across six games to cut down the nets.
Michigan State is a fine team, tops in the country in rebounding percentage, but I’m not sold on the team due to its wild three-point offense and defense.
However, another Big Ten team that has my eye in this group, and one that I haven’t written about to date, is Oregon.
The Ducks are on a five-game winning streak after losing five in a row, as the team seems to be hitting its stride ahead of the postseason.
The team’s KenPom-related metrics aren’t overwhelming, but the group has played a brutal schedule while also adjusting to cross-country travel in conference play as part of the new Big Ten. Further, this includes non-conference games against the likes of Texas A&M and Alabama on a neutral floor, both wins for the Ducks.
Oregon is an experienced group around big man Nate Bittle and lead guard Jackson Shelstad that is led by head coach Dana Altman and his unique defensive scheme that could make this team a dangerous team down the board in the NCAA Tournament but going off at extremely long prices in the Futures market due to some streaky play throughout Big Ten action.
Team
Record
KenPom Rank
Bracket Matrix Projected Seed
KenPom adjO Rank
KenPom adjD Rank
Title Odds
Missouri
21-8
12
5
5
57
+5000
St. John’s
26-4
15
3
71
2
+2500
Purdue
20-9
16
4
10
51
+6500
Kansas
19-10
21
6
59
6
+8000
Texas A&M
20-9
22
3
54
8
+5000
BYU
21-8
25
8
12
67
+8000
Baylor
17-12
30
10
15
61
+15000
UCONN
20-9
36
8
13
108
+8000
Vanderbilt
20-9
38
9
19
79
+15000
San Diego State
20-7
41
10
109
13
+30000
Arkansas
17-12
42
11
94
16
+30000
West Virginia
17-12
53
10
121
15
+50000
Villanova
18-12
54
N/A
20
113
+50000
Utah State
24-6
56
9
16
153
+50000
UC-Irvine
25-5
71
N/A
208
14
+100000
These are teams I’m not interested in come tournament time. While a team like Alabama was part of this group last season and went to the Final Four, it’s typically a group of teams I look to fade in the NCAA Tournament due to its over-reliance on one side of the ball.
It’s why I’m not buying BYU’s recent surge.
The Cougars have won five straight in Big 12 play and will enter postseason play with a ton of perceived momentum, but a lot of it is baked into sound shot making that has offset a ton of other red flags, namely on defense.
The Cougars lead Big 12 play in effective field goal percentage, offsetting its national average turnover rate on offense and its shaky defense. The Cougars' defense is painfully average, outside the top 150 in effective field goal percentage allowed and turnover percentage while getting torched from three. Opponents are shooting about 35% from beyond the arc against the Cougars this season, 234th nationally.
BYU may become a trendy name ahead of the NCAA Tournament, but a lot of it is ripe to come crashing down in the middle of March when its outlier shot-making inevitably goes cold.
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